Back in the early days of the COVID pandemic, I wrote a post on how to lead under volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous conditions. You may know those four words by their common acronym – VUCA. To be honest, I didn’t think that things could get any more VUCA than they were during the pandemic.
I’m beginning to think I was wrong about that. Practically every week over the past year there’s been a new breakthrough or application in the field of artificial intelligence. Pretty much everyone who’s paying attention agrees that AI is going to massively disrupt life and work; they just don’t know exactly how yet as the development and deployment of the technology races ahead.
And, as I write this in the early days of February 2025, we’re seeing massive disruption flowing from the White House in the form of tariffs, government executives being fired, industry regulations and policies being changed, DEI initiatives being challenged on all fronts, and Federal agencies apparently being shut down over the course of a weekend. And that’s just a partial list that came from the top of my head.
Volatile? No doubt. Uncertain, complex, and ambiguous? I’d say we haven’t even begun to sort out the second and third order effects of this wave of sudden change.
So, is leading through a VUCA environment still an important skill set to have or develop? I’d argue that it’s never been more important for private, public, and non-profit sector leaders both in the U.S. and globally. As a leader, how do you avoid freezing like a deer in the headlights as chaotic change swirls around you? I’d suggest breaking it down into clear steps that help you get as much as a handle as you can to determine the actions that are best for you and your organization right now.
Here’s a graphic of a framework for doing that followed by an explanation of the four steps.
Volatility – Volatile environments are disrupted ones in which things change rapidly and usually for the worse. Those are the perfect conditions to trigger a fight-or-flight response in the sympathetic nervous system. That’s why the first step in my simple VUCA action framework is for leaders to focus first on creating space for themselves and their teams to think. This could be as simple as reminding yourself and others to literally take a couple of steps back, take three deep breaths and then ask, “What do we think we’re dealing with and what are the most important things we need to focus on in the short run?” Creating space gives you the opportunity to calm yourself and focus your efforts.
Uncertainty – Uncertain environments are typically ones where there aren’t a lot of historical precedents to draw on for comparison and guidance. The second step in the action framework, therefore, is to do what you can to reduce uncertainty by gathering data and insights. The data gathering is a focused effort on learning what you can from reliable sources. Insights can come from conversations with internal and external partners who feel comfortable sharing the truth of what they’re seeing from their perspective. In uncertain situations, insights can also come from examining past experiences that, while they weren’t the same as what you’re experiencing now, at least offer some analogs that you can draw on to help determine what’s needed next in this situation.
Complexity – Complex environments have lots and lots of variables that interact with and impact each other in potentially unpredictable ways. Combined with uncertainty, complexity can lead to option overload and analysis paralysis. To counteract that dynamic, the third step in the framework is to identify discrete, manageable chunks of action that could make a positive difference. You’re not trying to solve for 100 percent on any given day, you’re trying to solve for the five percent or so that will move you closer to bigger solutions. A series of successful five percent solutions usually work a lot better than delaying action in favor of fully baking a 100 percent solution. You usually don’t get to 100 percent anyway, and, even when you do, the situation will have changed so much by the time you implement that the solution isn’t as effective as you originally hoped it would be.
Ambiguity – Ambiguous environments are ones in which outcomes and endpoints aren’t clear. It’s easy to get stuck in a loop of thinking, “This will be over by (fill in your favorite date or arbitrary milestone here).” That can lead to a lack of meaningful action. The fourth step in the framework, then, is to counteract that dynamic by running small (or, depending on the situation, larger) tests and sharing what’s learned from them. This test and learn approach builds on the previous step of identifying manageable chunks of action and keeps people engaged in a meaningful action loop in which short-term goals and dates are clear even as the longer-term endpoints aren’t. In addition to improving the current state of reality, engaging people in a test and learn approach gives them reason to hope and keep going.
Which leads to one final step in this framework for VUCA leadership – rinse and repeat. The first four steps aren’t just sequential; they’re also iterative. To get everyone else through this age of VUCA, leaders have to keep creating space, gathering data and insights, identifying manageable chunks of action, running small tests and then leading the whole process over again and again.
What VUCA challenges are you facing lately? What steps are working for you or what has you stuck? Share your experience and insights in my LinkedIn post on this article.
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